Post by Diamondback on Sept 17, 2006 11:35:36 GMT -6
I posted last season about some surprising omissions from last year's Chase, and some of the points I made seem to surprisingly hold true. The crew chief is the cornerstone of a team, as evidenced by the return of Jeff Gordon and Dale Jr. to the Chase.
The return of the Eury's to the 8 team, in my opinion, is the difference between this year and last. That group just has an uncanny knack for knowing what the other is thinking. You shouldn't mess with that kind of chemistry.
I think that there are a couple of factors working in Gordon's favor this year. One, a solid team and organization. Hendrick cars have been strong all year, at many different types of tracks. He hasn't performed as he has in years past, but just making the Chase will give that team the lift they need to return to form. Two, the new wife. Things have settled down at home for Gordon as well, and I would imagine that that helps take his mind off of what is going on at the racetrack, especially when things are bad. I would imagine that being able to clear your mind once you leave the racetrack will no doubt help in focusing on each week. Or maybe not. Either way, he's back, and it's becasue of the first or both factors.
Now for the good stuff...
Rather than a post on the whos and whys, lets look at the whos and wheres this year:
10. Kasey Kahne
A driver very lucky to be in. Had a great start to the season, but the wheels fell of after the midway point of the season. Was third in points going into Infineon week 16, but a string of seven races with only one top ten finish kicked him to eleventh in points. During that seven race stretch, his second best finish was 22nd. Do not count him out, however. In his last four races, he has three top fives and a win at California. Of his five wins (Atlanta, Charlotte, Texas, Michigan, California), three of them appear on the schedule during the Chase (Charlotte, Texas, Atlanta.) Tally will be the deal-breaker for this team. In the three plate races this year, his best finish is 11th in the Daytona 500. He finished 39th at 'Dega, and 25th in the 400 at Daytona this summer.
9. Jeff Gordon
A lackluster performance for the 24 camp this season. It's hard to imagine calling a team with two wins and 14 top tens mediocre, but when you look at the race breakdown, it's understandable. This team has been on a roller-coaster ride all season. A perfect example would be the midway point of the season. A win at Infineon, 40th place the next week at Daytona, followed by his second win of the season at Chicago. Talladega will be this team's Achille's heel as well. 25th in the 500, 12th at the spring 'Dega race, and 40th in July at Daytona. If this team wants to contend, they must have a top five at Tally. Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte is where this team will shine. They'll need top fives here if they miss the mark at Talladega.
8. Jeff Burton
This is my favorite story of the Chase, and proof positive that consistency is king. This team had a horrible start to the season. In the first six races: one top five, one top 10. The other four finishes were 32nd in the 500, 25th at Atlanta, 34th at Bristol, and 33rd at Texas, putting them 21st in points. The team turned the corner on week 7, however, and put together an amazing string of 13 top 10 finishes leading up to this week. The worst finish during this 21 race streak (apart from a 42nd place finish at Michigan due to a blown motor) was 16th two weeks ago at Cali. Given that performance, as well as the remaining schedule, consider this team a serious threat to the front-runners.
7. Mark Martin
Another model of consistency. In 26 races, he has 6 top fives, 12 top tens, and has finished worst than 20th only four times. This has kept him in the top 10 all year. Is he a threat to win the Cup, however? No. Of those four poor finishes, two came at superspeedways. A 35th place finish at the spring race at Tally, and 33rd at Daytona in July. If this team wants to win it all, they must win Talladega first and get that plate monkey off their backs.
6. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
Jr. has had a good season, aside from two back-to-back last place finishes late in the season (New Hampshire (engine), Pocono (accident)). Aside from that, all but four of his finishes have been outside of the top 20. This, in my mind, is the first of the "real contenders" for the Cup, as the remaining tracks are in his favor. With the exception of New Hampshire. His career stats shows only three top fives here, and that's what he'll need today to set the tone for the remaining races and make a run at the Cup.
5. Denny Hamlin
An impressive rookie season has landed Hamlin square in the middle of the Chase. Two wins (both at Pocono, both from the pole), four top fives, and 13 top 10's. The lack of top five finishes leads me to believe that we won't see much of him during the Chase, because that's what he's going to need to compete. Especially when you consider his finishes at plate tracks. 30th, 22nd, 17th. If he's up front late at Tally (and he does have a car capable of running up front), he will no doubt get shuffled out late, thus the need for consistent top fives and top tens for the remaining races. On an interesting sidenote, he has finished where he started in four of his last seven races. First at Pocono, 10th at the Glen, 9th at Michigan, and 6th at Bristol. At New Hampshire today, he will roll off fifth. He'll need to keep it to contend.
4. Kyle Busch
The next "serious contender" in my book. One win (New Hampshire), nine top fives, and 15 top 10s. He's been outside of the top ten for only four weeks, and has been bouncing around the top five since his win at New Hampshire. Five of those top five finishes have come in the last 10 races, and his two worst finishes during that streak was a 12th at Pocono and 39th at Michigan. If he can keep this up, he is a serious threat.
3. Kevin Harvick
Much like the 31 team, the 29 team started off ugly. After the first four weeks, and finishes of 14th, 29th, 11th, and 39th, they found themselves 23rd in points. Over the next six races, however, they scored four top fives, including a win at Phoenix, that landed them in the top 10 in points, where they've been ever since. More importantly, they've picked up six top fives and two wins (the Glen, Richmond) in the last 10 weeks, including a streak of five straight top fives (Chicago - Glen) that landed them solidly into third place. This team seems to be peaking, and at the right time. They have the horsepower for Tally, and the handling for Martinsville, Phoenix and Homestead. Atlanta and Charlotte will be the deciding factors for this team, as this is where they have struggled this year with finishes of 39th (Atlanta) and 34th (Charlotte). One thing working in their favor for these tracks, however, is their finishing record. They have no DNF's this season, and need to keep that streak going to have any hope of knocking off the top two.
2. Jimmie Johnson
This team has been scary this year, and in my opinion is the new powerhouse team of Hendrick Racing (Sorry Gordon fans, but look at the numbers over the last two years.). So far this year, they've got four wins, 8 top fives, 18 top 10s, an average finishing position of just over nine, 99.8% lap completion, and zero DNF's. This team has finished outside of the top 20 only three times this season. 30th at the first Bristol race, 32nd at Daytona in July, and 23rd last week at Richmond. Strike those three races and his worst finish was 17th at the Glen. Everything else has been 12th or better. With numbers like that, you have to wonder how anybody could catch him. Here's the telling tale. In the last six races, they have only one top five (a win at the Brickyard) and one top 10 (10th at Bristol). If he wants the trophy this year, he's going to need to close the season much in the same way he started the season. In the first 10 races this season, Three wins, five top fives, seven top tens. If he can repeat that, you're looking at the next Champion.
1. Matt Kenseth
So how, you ask, can someone top the numbers that the 48 team has posted? If you put them side by side, they look almost identical. Four wins, 13 top fives, and 16 top tens. The difference, however, is all in the timing. While the 48 has floundered over the last weeks, this team has done just the opposite. Over the last six races, they've posted three top five finishes, including two back-to-back wins at Michigan and Bristol, five top tens, and a 21st place finish at the Glen. Their worst, and only finish outside of the top 25, was a 38th at Richmond in May. The only "slump" -- and I'm using that term lightly -- is a streak of races starting at Michigan in June wherein through the next eight races they scored two top fives and no top tens. That "slump", however, does include two fourteenth place finishes and a thirteenth. The rebound was nice, however, as they won back-to-back as previously mentioned, and never lost a position in points during that time. This team is hot right now, and if it keeps up, this is your new Champion.
As for predictions:
1. Matt Kenseth (yes, I'm rescinding my statement from last week about Johnson. Sorry, but I just don't like the numbers. Which leads to...)
2. Kevin Harvick (Like I said, this team is on a streak right now, much like the 17 team.)
3. Dale Jr. (As stated earlier, the remaining 10 look good for this team, with the exception of New Hampshire. After today, he'll have to fight to get here.)
4. Jimmy Johnson (This team is in a slump, and it may take a few races to snap out of it. Unfourtunately, he doesn't have that luxury.)
5. Jeff Burton (This team has been consistent as of late, and will remain consistent, but will not win a race this year. That's what they'll need to finish any higher than this.)
6. Kyle Busch (The streak of top tens will end. Period.)
7. Jeff Gordon (Up, down, up, down. That's the way the season has been so far, and that's the way it will end. No more, no less.)
8. Kasey Kahne (While the remainig schedule heavily favors this team, I'm afraid they've used up their luck. Who expected Stewart to miss the chase?)
9. Mark Martin (He'll be the first one out at Tally, and the first one out of the Chase.)
10. Denny Hamlin (The pressure cooker is boiling, and this kid is gonna cook. Again, like Martin, Talladega will be his downfall, if it doesn't come earlier. Like say, oh, I don't know, Today.)
The return of the Eury's to the 8 team, in my opinion, is the difference between this year and last. That group just has an uncanny knack for knowing what the other is thinking. You shouldn't mess with that kind of chemistry.
I think that there are a couple of factors working in Gordon's favor this year. One, a solid team and organization. Hendrick cars have been strong all year, at many different types of tracks. He hasn't performed as he has in years past, but just making the Chase will give that team the lift they need to return to form. Two, the new wife. Things have settled down at home for Gordon as well, and I would imagine that that helps take his mind off of what is going on at the racetrack, especially when things are bad. I would imagine that being able to clear your mind once you leave the racetrack will no doubt help in focusing on each week. Or maybe not. Either way, he's back, and it's becasue of the first or both factors.
Now for the good stuff...
Rather than a post on the whos and whys, lets look at the whos and wheres this year:
10. Kasey Kahne
A driver very lucky to be in. Had a great start to the season, but the wheels fell of after the midway point of the season. Was third in points going into Infineon week 16, but a string of seven races with only one top ten finish kicked him to eleventh in points. During that seven race stretch, his second best finish was 22nd. Do not count him out, however. In his last four races, he has three top fives and a win at California. Of his five wins (Atlanta, Charlotte, Texas, Michigan, California), three of them appear on the schedule during the Chase (Charlotte, Texas, Atlanta.) Tally will be the deal-breaker for this team. In the three plate races this year, his best finish is 11th in the Daytona 500. He finished 39th at 'Dega, and 25th in the 400 at Daytona this summer.
9. Jeff Gordon
A lackluster performance for the 24 camp this season. It's hard to imagine calling a team with two wins and 14 top tens mediocre, but when you look at the race breakdown, it's understandable. This team has been on a roller-coaster ride all season. A perfect example would be the midway point of the season. A win at Infineon, 40th place the next week at Daytona, followed by his second win of the season at Chicago. Talladega will be this team's Achille's heel as well. 25th in the 500, 12th at the spring 'Dega race, and 40th in July at Daytona. If this team wants to contend, they must have a top five at Tally. Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte is where this team will shine. They'll need top fives here if they miss the mark at Talladega.
8. Jeff Burton
This is my favorite story of the Chase, and proof positive that consistency is king. This team had a horrible start to the season. In the first six races: one top five, one top 10. The other four finishes were 32nd in the 500, 25th at Atlanta, 34th at Bristol, and 33rd at Texas, putting them 21st in points. The team turned the corner on week 7, however, and put together an amazing string of 13 top 10 finishes leading up to this week. The worst finish during this 21 race streak (apart from a 42nd place finish at Michigan due to a blown motor) was 16th two weeks ago at Cali. Given that performance, as well as the remaining schedule, consider this team a serious threat to the front-runners.
7. Mark Martin
Another model of consistency. In 26 races, he has 6 top fives, 12 top tens, and has finished worst than 20th only four times. This has kept him in the top 10 all year. Is he a threat to win the Cup, however? No. Of those four poor finishes, two came at superspeedways. A 35th place finish at the spring race at Tally, and 33rd at Daytona in July. If this team wants to win it all, they must win Talladega first and get that plate monkey off their backs.
6. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
Jr. has had a good season, aside from two back-to-back last place finishes late in the season (New Hampshire (engine), Pocono (accident)). Aside from that, all but four of his finishes have been outside of the top 20. This, in my mind, is the first of the "real contenders" for the Cup, as the remaining tracks are in his favor. With the exception of New Hampshire. His career stats shows only three top fives here, and that's what he'll need today to set the tone for the remaining races and make a run at the Cup.
5. Denny Hamlin
An impressive rookie season has landed Hamlin square in the middle of the Chase. Two wins (both at Pocono, both from the pole), four top fives, and 13 top 10's. The lack of top five finishes leads me to believe that we won't see much of him during the Chase, because that's what he's going to need to compete. Especially when you consider his finishes at plate tracks. 30th, 22nd, 17th. If he's up front late at Tally (and he does have a car capable of running up front), he will no doubt get shuffled out late, thus the need for consistent top fives and top tens for the remaining races. On an interesting sidenote, he has finished where he started in four of his last seven races. First at Pocono, 10th at the Glen, 9th at Michigan, and 6th at Bristol. At New Hampshire today, he will roll off fifth. He'll need to keep it to contend.
4. Kyle Busch
The next "serious contender" in my book. One win (New Hampshire), nine top fives, and 15 top 10s. He's been outside of the top ten for only four weeks, and has been bouncing around the top five since his win at New Hampshire. Five of those top five finishes have come in the last 10 races, and his two worst finishes during that streak was a 12th at Pocono and 39th at Michigan. If he can keep this up, he is a serious threat.
3. Kevin Harvick
Much like the 31 team, the 29 team started off ugly. After the first four weeks, and finishes of 14th, 29th, 11th, and 39th, they found themselves 23rd in points. Over the next six races, however, they scored four top fives, including a win at Phoenix, that landed them in the top 10 in points, where they've been ever since. More importantly, they've picked up six top fives and two wins (the Glen, Richmond) in the last 10 weeks, including a streak of five straight top fives (Chicago - Glen) that landed them solidly into third place. This team seems to be peaking, and at the right time. They have the horsepower for Tally, and the handling for Martinsville, Phoenix and Homestead. Atlanta and Charlotte will be the deciding factors for this team, as this is where they have struggled this year with finishes of 39th (Atlanta) and 34th (Charlotte). One thing working in their favor for these tracks, however, is their finishing record. They have no DNF's this season, and need to keep that streak going to have any hope of knocking off the top two.
2. Jimmie Johnson
This team has been scary this year, and in my opinion is the new powerhouse team of Hendrick Racing (Sorry Gordon fans, but look at the numbers over the last two years.). So far this year, they've got four wins, 8 top fives, 18 top 10s, an average finishing position of just over nine, 99.8% lap completion, and zero DNF's. This team has finished outside of the top 20 only three times this season. 30th at the first Bristol race, 32nd at Daytona in July, and 23rd last week at Richmond. Strike those three races and his worst finish was 17th at the Glen. Everything else has been 12th or better. With numbers like that, you have to wonder how anybody could catch him. Here's the telling tale. In the last six races, they have only one top five (a win at the Brickyard) and one top 10 (10th at Bristol). If he wants the trophy this year, he's going to need to close the season much in the same way he started the season. In the first 10 races this season, Three wins, five top fives, seven top tens. If he can repeat that, you're looking at the next Champion.
1. Matt Kenseth
So how, you ask, can someone top the numbers that the 48 team has posted? If you put them side by side, they look almost identical. Four wins, 13 top fives, and 16 top tens. The difference, however, is all in the timing. While the 48 has floundered over the last weeks, this team has done just the opposite. Over the last six races, they've posted three top five finishes, including two back-to-back wins at Michigan and Bristol, five top tens, and a 21st place finish at the Glen. Their worst, and only finish outside of the top 25, was a 38th at Richmond in May. The only "slump" -- and I'm using that term lightly -- is a streak of races starting at Michigan in June wherein through the next eight races they scored two top fives and no top tens. That "slump", however, does include two fourteenth place finishes and a thirteenth. The rebound was nice, however, as they won back-to-back as previously mentioned, and never lost a position in points during that time. This team is hot right now, and if it keeps up, this is your new Champion.
As for predictions:
1. Matt Kenseth (yes, I'm rescinding my statement from last week about Johnson. Sorry, but I just don't like the numbers. Which leads to...)
2. Kevin Harvick (Like I said, this team is on a streak right now, much like the 17 team.)
3. Dale Jr. (As stated earlier, the remaining 10 look good for this team, with the exception of New Hampshire. After today, he'll have to fight to get here.)
4. Jimmy Johnson (This team is in a slump, and it may take a few races to snap out of it. Unfourtunately, he doesn't have that luxury.)
5. Jeff Burton (This team has been consistent as of late, and will remain consistent, but will not win a race this year. That's what they'll need to finish any higher than this.)
6. Kyle Busch (The streak of top tens will end. Period.)
7. Jeff Gordon (Up, down, up, down. That's the way the season has been so far, and that's the way it will end. No more, no less.)
8. Kasey Kahne (While the remainig schedule heavily favors this team, I'm afraid they've used up their luck. Who expected Stewart to miss the chase?)
9. Mark Martin (He'll be the first one out at Tally, and the first one out of the Chase.)
10. Denny Hamlin (The pressure cooker is boiling, and this kid is gonna cook. Again, like Martin, Talladega will be his downfall, if it doesn't come earlier. Like say, oh, I don't know, Today.)